Follow-up and Reactions to EU and NA Playoff Predictions

Posted: Apr 04 2016

I'm a petty person. When I get a chance to say "I told you so," you better believe I'm going full Chauster on you. The last 2 weeks we did some EU and NA predictions and for the most part, we were on point. The exception was that we assumed Fnatic and Origen would finish 4th and 5th before the season's closure, but the quarterfinal series mostly played out as we had expected. Let's take a look at our predictions and what we were wrong/right about:  

EU Quarterfinal 1

Prediction: Vitality 3 - 1 Unicorns of Love
Reality: Origen 3 - 0 Unicorns of Love

What we were right about

1) Loulex appeared to have no synergy as expected with the team in a playoff series. The story of this series appeared to be Vizicsacsi getting caught out alone with Loulex nowhere near him, and Unicorns taking random fights they should've avoided. Certainly a lot of that blame belongs to Vizicsacsi, but getting caught out alone repeatedly is also symptomatic of having weak/no communication with your jungler. 

2) There wasn't much to analyze because UOL isn't a very good team and would be easily beaten by any playoff contender

What we were wrong about:

1) Obviously, Origen took Vitality's place in this match having beaten Fnatic in the final week of the regular split. But regardless of who played the Unicorns we assumed they would easily dispatch them.

2) We assumed UOL could pull a random win out early in the series, but they couldn't take a single game off Origen.

EU Quarterfinal 2

Prediction: Fnatic 3 - 2 Origen
Reality: Fnatic 3 - 1 Vitality

What we were right about

1) Fnatic's experience and indidivudal play would come to fruition. Vitality seemed a bit shaky and hesistant during the series which was somewhat expected despite the veteran status of their players. We did predict that Fnatic, with their superior coaching and support staff would enter the series less nervous and more decisive.

2)  Fnatic's diversity is a boon in a series. While this point was more about what could happen in the semi-finals had Fnatic advanced, the fact that all of Fnatic's players are relatively selfless and will play whatever is required to win a game is not to be underestimated. Vitality is also reasonable diverse, but not quite at Fnatic's level, who played several double-TP comps and pulled out the Kassadin pick, throwing Vitality for a loop.

What we were wrong about

1) Vitality being the opponent instead of Origen. Again, we assumed Fnatic would win the matchup in the final week of the split, so we got a bit ahead of ourselves.

2) Vitality would have early jitters but get over them. In truth, they never got over them because Fnatic kept their foot on their necks. They weren't able to properly punish the Kassadin as it seems Febiven's pick completely caught them off guard. Nukeduck in particular was playing too safely, a problem he has developed some notoriety for in recent splits.

NA Quarterfinal 1

Prediction: TSM 3 - 2 Cloud9
Reality: TSM 3 - 1 Cloud9

What we were right about

1) TSM would win if Svenskeren played well. This is a bit of an easy prediction, but we knew the key in the series would be coordination between the solo laners and Svenskeren. Compared to the regular split, Svenskeren played really well with his team, and made everyone wonder where he had been all year if he was capable of playing so well. His Graves performance in Game 4 will likely stick out due to his insanely good score, but he also had great Elise and Nidalee games which was pivotal to TSM's success in shutting down Rush.

2) Putting Hai on Braum and not Morgana would win TSM the series. Despite their game 1 win with Hai on Braum, which was more of a factor of the global comp winning C9 the game, C9 showed a major weakness having Hai on a melee, engage champion. Games 2 and 3 showed how easily C9 could be disrupted when their shot-caller couldn't reliably find ways to engage and had to play in the front lines. Hai got caught out a lot and went a total of 0/10/8 in those two games.

What we were wrong about

1) The key to the victory wasn't to tilt Hai, but to tilt Rush instead. We assumed shutting down the shot-caller and brains of the team was the easiest way for TSM to win, but it turns out banning 1-2 junglers each game and putting Rush on Kindred was the best way to go about it. Rush played absolutely awfully over the series, dying alone over and over again, essentially for free. Once again, in a playoff series Rush's limited ability to play anything besides Lee Sin or Nidalee hurt his team greatly.

NA Quarterfinal 2

Prediction: Liquid 3 - 0 NRG
Reality: Liquid 3 - 0 NRG

What we were right about 

1) Moon's inconsistency would be a problem for NRG to get a win. Moon showed up in game 3, effectively mirroring Dardoch's aggression to keep his team in the game. It seemed NRG had the best chance of winning that game, but ultimately showing up once in the series wasn't good enough. Dardoch heavily outplayed NRG's jungler at virtually every turn.

2) Piglet and Matt would overwhelm Altec and Konkwon. Virtually all three games were won based on Piglet getting a massive lead on Altec, allowing Dardoch to make an easy call to pressure bot and extend that lead. I can't remember a series in recent memory where one ADC just outshined the other quite so heavily. This was borderline embarassing for the NRG duo. 

What we were wrong about

Nothing.

Stay tuned for our in-depth semi-final analysis and predictions and keep following along with us to see if we continue to be right or just got lucky and have no clue what's going to happen.

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